A tropical depression churning in the northern Gulf of America is on track to strengthen into Tropical Storm Edouard and make landfall along the Texas coast Tuesday, prompting tropical storm warnings, a storm surge watch, and flood alerts across Southeast Texas. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Depression Five at 1 p.m. Monday, with Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirming a defined center of circulation.

Where is the storm now, and how strong is it?

As of Monday afternoon, the depression was centered roughly 120 miles south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana, and about 230 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, moving west-northwest at 5 to 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were measured at 35 mph, just below tropical storm strength. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the system to strengthen into Tropical Storm Edouard later Monday night or early Tuesday as it continues tracking toward the coast.

Where and when is landfall expected?

The system is forecast to make landfall Tuesday afternoon or evening somewhere between High Island, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana, with several forecasts pointing toward the Galveston area specifically. The National Hurricane Center has described confidence in the track forecast as high.

What warnings and watches are in effect?

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line in Louisiana, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected in that zone within about 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for the Gulf Coast from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line. The National Weather Service has additionally placed a flood watch into effect from Monday night through Wednesday morning across a broad swath of Southeast Texas, including the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston Island, Chambers, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto and both inland and coastal Harris and Galveston counties.

How much rain and flooding risk is expected?

Forecasters expect 3 to 5 inches of rain across the greater Houston area, with isolated totals as high as 9 inches possible. Rainfall rates could exceed 4 inches per hour at times, a pace officials say is capable of producing flash flooding, particularly near and east of Houston. Local meteorologists in the Houston area have placed flood alerts at Stage 2 for areas along and east of Interstate 45, and Stage 1 for areas to the west, as a precaution ahead of the system’s arrival.

What should residents in the warning area expect?

Officials are urging residents along the upper Texas coast and in southwest Louisiana to monitor forecasts closely as the system approaches, given the potential for storm surge, gusty winds and heavy, fast accumulating rainfall. Emergency management officials in coastal counties are continuing to track the storm’s progress ahead of its expected Tuesday landfall.

This story is developing. FOU News will continue to follow developments as authorities and emergency services release new information.